How to Invest

There is a great article by Michael Lewis on the efficient market hypothesis - the idea that financial markets are so good that you can't actually beat the market. (I can't find it online anywhere) I'd summarize it, but this blog by Megan McArdle has already done so in a much pithier manner than I am capable of:

"Lewis completely glosses over distinctions between various forms of the efficient markets hypothesis, bizarrely simplifies arguments about the various premia on asset classes (those looking for a solution to this riddle might start with the word "liquidity"), and tells a suspiciously pat morality tale about a stock-jammer-turned-sainted-investment-advisor. But he gets the big thing right. The world would be a better place if we all took home the point of his sermon:

You can't beat the market. YOU can't beat the market. YOU CAN'T BEAT THE MARKET.

It doesn't matter which version of the EMH (efficient market hypothesis) is correct. It doesn't matter if the behavioral finance guys are correct. You--adorable, clever, hardworking little you--are mathematically just as likely to underperform the market as outperform it. You would do better to go to Vegas and sit down at the $25 blackjack table with a firm resolve to walk away as soon as probability has varied a few hundred dollars in your favor."

McArdle concludes with the essential investing advice that any sane economist should give you:

"You can't beat the market, and neither can the jerk on the phone trying to sell you stocks. Put your money in the broadest possible index fund (being young and having no children, I'm all equity with a 70/30 split between domestic and international; your mileage may vary). Then leave it there. Don't even peek. Throw the statements away unopened. Rebalance once a year to keep your money at your target allocation, and otherwise don't think about it. If you want the thrill of gambling, go to Vegas. At least they'll give you free drinks."

US Weekly Update

A new month begins with Halle Berry racing up the charts thanks to having had tons of plastic surgery. If only someone had Scarlett Johansson, they could have racked up 10 points from the cover this week. Scoring note: Katie Holmes has 5 points this week, not 6. In one of her pictures with Tom, she's facing away from the camera, and we can't see her face - no point.

Top 5 for the Week, and for December:
1. F-ing French (35)
Los Chulos y Las Putas (35)
3. The Boob Jobs (33)
4. Dina Lohan's Playgroup (31)
5. The Good, The Bad, and the Fugly (29)

Top 5 for the Season:
1. The Boob Jobs (78)
2. F-ing French (74)
3. Dina Lohan's Playgroup (69)
The Good, The Bad, and the Fugly (69)
5. Los Chulos y Las Putas (65)

Still lots of time left before the Oscars. Tell your friends and enemies to get their lists in.

Mental Housekeeping

Crap you might find cool:

1. Strange maps. This blog posts some new weird map pretty much every day. One could waste a lot of time (not me, of course, but some hypothetical procrastinator) on this website. Scroll down a few days for the map of the prevalence of blond hair in Europe. Useless, but interesting.

2. The Hamlet text adventure. Old school computer adventure game. And when I say old school I mean OLD school. Like type "look book" to look at a book, or "north" to go north. No graphics at all. This could have run on the PET computer we had in 4th grade. Love it. Helps if you remember at least some of the plot of Hamlet, and Macbeth, and Romeo and Juliet, and Othello...

3. It's like they're really talking:

Sick? Not so cute

I know that they're cute in their little dresses (see a couple posts below), but give Maddie a sinus infection, a fever, and an inability to breathe, and this is what you get.

Random Sports

A few things to get off my mind and onto the web-o-net:

1. Michigan hockey continues to look very good. Big wins around Thanksgiving versus Wisconsin and Minnesota. I'm willing to forgive the hiccup against Ohio State the following week, where we split with the Buckeyes. My boy Louie Caporusso has quited down lately, and has missed some games (can't get any info on whether this is injury or Red's decision). But freshman continue to be big contributors. Palushaj, Pacioretty, Langlais, Rust, and Hagelin are 3-7 in team scoring. Bryan Hogan got a start vs OSU, after having mono for the first two months of the season, and scored a W.

2. Who in the Michigan athletic department agreed to play Florida in the Capital One Bowl? Isn't this just the Oregon game all over again, except with more speed and a better quarterback? I want to believe, but yikes.

3. College football - doesn't this crap-ass LSU/Ohio State match-up make the case for a real playoff? How can you tell me Oklahoma, or USC, aren't really deserving of those spots? What about Virginia Tech? Aren't they a different team than lost to LSU early in the season? Here's the 1st round matchups of my mythical 16-team playoff, based on the BCS rankings

1. Ohio State (1) vs. Tennessee (16) - the battle of the loudest stadium in America
   
2. LSU (2) vs. Clemson (15) - not a bad game either
3. Virginia Tech (3) vs. BC (14) - you might want to shake this up to avoid their 3rd meeting
4. Oklahoma (4) vs. Illinois (13) - also not a bad basketball game
5. Georgia (5) vs. Florida (12) - the world's extra-largest cocktail party?
   
6. Missouri (6) vs. Arizona State (11) - wasn't this a Final Four game from like 1986?
   
7. USC (7) vs. Hawaii (10) - probably 42-0 in USC's favor, but whatever
8. Kansas (8) vs. West Virginia (9) - uh, okay, I wouldn't watch this either

Let's assume the higher seeds win each game, then your final 8 looks like this

1. Ohio State (1) vs. Kansas (8) - alright, still boring
2. LSU(2) vs. USC (7) - now we're talking
3. Virginia Tech (3) vs. Missouri (6) - can Chase Daniel handle that D?
4. Oklahoma (4) vs. Georgia (5) - TOP quality game

From there, who knows, but isn't this a lot better than what we're going to get anyway?

Overdue Cute

Thanks to GG for the cute dresses.

US Weekly Update

This weeks standings:

Week
1. Papa Razzies (22)
2. Dina Lohan's Playgroup (20)
F-ing French (20)
The Boob Jobs (20)
5. Fourteen Freaks and Baby (19)

Month (November)
1. The Boob Jobs (45)
2. The Good, The Bad, and the Fugly (40)
3. F-ing French (39)
4. Dina Lohan's Playgroup (38)
5. Ocean's Fifteen (35)

J.D. (Papa Razzies) scores big in his first week in the pool, but as always, my own celebrity radar is spot on. For your own celebrity edification, here are the top scorers so far:

1. Vanessa Minillo (10)
2. Lauren Conrad (6)
Lindsay Lohan (6)
4. Jessica Alba (5)
Victoria Beckham (5)
Carrie Underwood (5)